The protracted war in Mozambique’s gas-rich Cabo Delgado province — which has resulted in several brutal deaths of local villagers and billions lost to economic instability — that a leading security expert has ruled out the prospect of President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi forcing the insurgents to a negotiating table. Despite the presence of the French-backed Rwandan troops and the SADC mission in Mozambique (Samim) – made up of Mozambican and South African soldiers – Jasmine Opperman, an analyst with the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (Acled), about the difficulties. These include: Nyusi’s government and soldiers are not credible…
The protracted war in Mozambique’s gas-rich Cabo Delgado province — which has resulted in several brutal deaths of local villagers and billions lost to economic instability — that a leading security expert has ruled out the prospect of President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi forcing the insurgents to a negotiating table.
Despite the presence of the French-backed Rwandan troops and the SADC mission in Mozambique (Samim) – made up of Mozambican and South African soldiers – Jasmine Opperman, an analyst with the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (Acled), about the difficulties.
Among which:
- Nyusi’s government and soldiers are not credible among the villagers;
- French-funded Rwandan troops are deployed in a small area to protect the strategic corridor, and are only in Mozambique to protect the economic interests of their financiers – the French company Total and the liquefied natural gas (LNG) project;
- Samim is not well funded by an international body like the European Union (EU); and
- Samim troops have a huge area to protect in a complex bush battlefield.
“While a political solution is ideal, as the war on terror will not only provide a quick package of a solution to the crisis, the environment is not conducive to talks,” Opperman said.
“Negotiations depend on who you are going to talk to, what you are going to talk about and what compromises are made,” she said.
The local population, exposed to brutal attacks, living in constant fear, with decapitated husbands and raped women, do not trust the Mozambican troops to provide them with safety.
“Samim may face an evolving credibility crisis.
“Rwandans have moved to an area where we see smaller insurgent cell presences, allowing them to react quickly to any attack,” Opperman said.
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The only problem is that Rwanda serves French interests. She said an environment must be created, maintained and enabled to force the insurgents into some kind of dialogue.
“That will be a long-term process and the government must first create social cohesion and trust – unfortunately not quite there yet.”
Opperman added: “Will the insurgents agree to dialogue?” She said that with their current momentum and capacity, they could increase Samim’s resolve by continuing to instill fear in the villagers. SADC and the Samim forces are also severely hampered when it comes to funding factors.
“Now if we see SA troops deployed to Cabo Delgado, that is not an additional deployment, but only in accordance with the recommendation of the technical committee.
“It is consistent with a commitment to deploy 1,500 soldiers on a rotational basis,” she said.
“What we’re seeing aren’t additional deployments that increase capacity, just the implementation of recommendations.
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The Acled expert said it was an open question how EU assistance would evolve as “we have not seen any direct aid or funding”.
Meanwhile, Rwanda is financed by France, making it easier for them to maintain and expand their presence to over 2,000 soldiers. The same cannot be said about the money-stressed Samim,” said Opperman.
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