Categories Business Tech World Ukraine: 10 new realities | The The Vanir-exodus Post author By vanirexodus Post date February 28, 2022 No Comments on Ukraine: 10 new realities | The The Vanir-exodus Now that Russian President Vladimir Putin has invaded Ukraine and ruled out his and everyone’s other options, certain aspects of the near future have become clear. So have some aspects of the longer term. Here are 10 predictions, made with varying degrees of confidence. 1. Ukraine’s organized armed forces will not be able to fight for much longer. The armed forces are smaller and less well equipped than the Russian invasion force. They are attacked simultaneously from the north, east and south and above all have no air cover. Russian cruise missiles have already hit most of the Ukrainian air bases and are commanding… Now that Russian President Vladimir Putin has invaded Ukraine and ruled out his and everyone’s other options, certain aspects of the near future have become clear. So have some aspects of the longer term. Here are 10 predictions, made with varying degrees of confidence. 1. Ukraine’s organized armed forces will not be able to fight for much longer. The armed forces are smaller and less well equipped than the Russian invasion force. They are attacked simultaneously from the north, east and south and above all have no air cover. Russian cruise missiles have already hit most of the Ukrainian air bases and command centers, and Ukrainian troops in the field will be divided into small groups, surrounded and overwhelmed. Arming civilians doesn’t help: it just kills them. The organized struggle will probably be over in a week. 2. There will be an underground resistance movement at least for a while, but don’t think that Ukrainians will become the new Vietcong. This is an urban society and the resistance will rely on ambushes, assassinations and IEDs. The Russians will call it “terrorism”. 3. Putin says “We don’t intend to occupy Ukraine”, but of course they will. The only question is whether the Russians will stop at the Dnieper River (plus Kiev, on the western bank), or take the western half of the country as well. The resistance will be stronger in the west, where Ukrainian nationalism is more deeply rooted, but Putin’s denial of the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state and indeed of a distinct Ukrainian identity means that he cannot really disregard the west. 4. The Russian civil and military intelligence services, the FSB and the GRU, will have lists of Ukrainians who will be arrested: at least thousands. Some of them can be killed, but when it happens, we don’t hear about it. Many more people who fear being on those lists will flee. 5. Several hundred thousand other people will also flee west just because they do not want to live under military occupation and Russification. It could be more if Russia leaves the border open for a while to get rid of the people most likely to resent their presence. ALSO READ: Watch the movements of Russia and China 6. The border between NATO members and the countries Putin controls (Russia, Belarus and Ukraine) will be remilitarized and defense budgets in Germany and Eastern European countries will rise. But as in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968, there will be no NATO military action to counter the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Why? Nuclear weapons. 7. Will a new Cold War spread across the world? No, because post-Soviet Russia is too small and weak to keep its part of it afloat. There is no real ideological conflict: democracy is an ideology, but dictatorship is not. At worst, there will be a Cold War in the North Atlantic/European region. 8. Will Putin get away with it? For a while, yes. There will of course be more Western sanctions against Russia, but he has built up a big war chest and outside the cities the Russians are still very “patriotic” and gullible. But Putin’s long-term project of herrussification is doomed to failure: there is simply no popular enthusiasm for it. 9. Will Ukraine regain its independence? Not while Putin is alive (he’s 69), unless there is a coup d’état in the Kremlin. The Russians will install a puppet government in Kiev, but will find it too unstable to allow their troops to be brought home. But if Putin is gone, Ukraine will have a chance to regain its freedom. So can Russia. 10. Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US election? Maybe not. His fanboy adaptation for Putin is well received by the hardcore Maga crowd, who admire the Russian dictator more than Joe Biden, but praising Putin’s “clever move” to invade Ukraine won’t sit well with most Americans. unpack when their country becomes entangled in a confrontation with Russia. ← Nations approve important UN report on climate impact → ‘Police harass sex workers’ Leave a Reply Cancel replyYour email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment * Name * Email * Website Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.